5. 總結(jié)

　　本文嘗試了整合技術(shù)、國(guó)際貿(mào)易和全球價(jià)值鏈文獻(xiàn)，并基于當(dāng)下全球化、生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)碎片化和無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展出一套整合了產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易和無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的國(guó)際貿(mào)易分析框架。通過深入討論五種無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的模式，本文發(fā)展出一套基于全球價(jià)值鏈的國(guó)際貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)框架。把這個(gè)框架應(yīng)用于美國(guó)貿(mào)易收支計(jì)算，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)考慮無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易后， 2016年美國(guó)的貿(mào)易凈收支（包括產(chǎn)品、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、保險(xiǎn)和金融服務(wù)、計(jì)算機(jī)通訊和其他服務(wù)，以2%收益率和總OFDI和無(wú)形資產(chǎn)密集行業(yè)FDI歷史存量計(jì)算的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)凈收益，以及蘋果公司的非美國(guó)部分收入）為3963.8億美元逆差，比 7499.3億美元僅以產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易計(jì)算的逆差減少了近一半；2015年美國(guó)貿(mào)易凈收支為3971.5億美元逆差，而不是7625.7億美元。如果我們進(jìn)一步加入除蘋果公司外的包含在外包中的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易，美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差應(yīng)當(dāng)更小。因此，本文認(rèn)為國(guó)際貿(mào)易不平衡與相應(yīng)的政策措施應(yīng)當(dāng)基于完整的包括21世紀(jì)多種貿(mào)易活動(dòng)在內(nèi)的統(tǒng)計(jì)框架來(lái)討論。

　　本文的貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)框架提供了一種幫助我們理解21世紀(jì)更廣的貿(mào)易圖景的方法。產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易，甚至產(chǎn)品加服務(wù)貿(mào)易，不再是描述貿(mào)易關(guān)系的好的指標(biāo)。無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的各種模式和渠道需要被納入到這個(gè)大的貿(mào)易圖景中來(lái)。一種可能的解決方法是整合數(shù)字技術(shù)和可靠的公司自申報(bào)系統(tǒng)。比如，我們可以用物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)鏈接各種投入和產(chǎn)出，然后用大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)對(duì)比不同來(lái)源數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性，以及填補(bǔ)中間的數(shù)據(jù)空白。而國(guó)際合作是建立標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和執(zhí)行對(duì)于新框架的使用和數(shù)據(jù)收集的可行性和可靠性的重要保障。

　　本文的研究具有重要的政策意義。第一，本文的研究為如何更好的測(cè)度全球化做出了貢獻(xiàn)。全球化不應(yīng)當(dāng)僅僅根據(jù)產(chǎn)品、投資和服務(wù)的互動(dòng)和一體化來(lái)測(cè)度，還應(yīng)該包含追蹤和測(cè)度起來(lái)更加復(fù)雜的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的流動(dòng)。

　　第二，本文為全球化的影響的爭(zhēng)論和更包容的全球化政策做出了貢獻(xiàn)。近年，全球化被認(rèn)為是導(dǎo)致發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家不平等問題的罪魁禍?zhǔn)?。反全球化浪潮出現(xiàn)在一些主流的工業(yè)化國(guó)家。產(chǎn)品的國(guó)際貿(mào)易成為了攻擊對(duì)象。貿(mào)易和投資保護(hù)主義在不斷抬頭。本文的研究表明全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡并不像商品貿(mào)易所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的那么嚴(yán)重。實(shí)際上，工業(yè)化國(guó)家有巨大的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)順差。但是問題是，無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易帶來(lái)的巨大收益集中在少數(shù)的所有者和一小部分創(chuàng)造這些無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的研究技術(shù)人員手里。所以，對(duì)于工業(yè)化國(guó)家來(lái)說，無(wú)形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易獲得巨大利益的團(tuán)體與社會(huì)其他人群之間的是減少不平等的重要措施。并且應(yīng)當(dāng)禁止跨境避稅行為。

　　最后，本文的研究對(duì)貿(mào)易不平衡做出了貢獻(xiàn)。我們應(yīng)該從更加整體的角度，從全球價(jià)值鏈的視角來(lái)思考國(guó)際貿(mào)易的問題。解決工業(yè)化國(guó)家（如美國(guó)）和發(fā)展中國(guó)家（如中國(guó)）之間的貿(mào)易不平衡問題的政策工具應(yīng)當(dāng)是基于真實(shí)的完整的貿(mào)易活動(dòng)。根據(jù)本文的分析，中美真實(shí)的貿(mào)易逆差比大眾認(rèn)知的3570億美元低很多。因此，減少逆差的談判基礎(chǔ)應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮到這個(gè)問題。同時(shí)，無(wú)形資產(chǎn)出口應(yīng)當(dāng)被當(dāng)做一種政策工具納入兩國(guó)政府的考量，而不僅僅是高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口。

　　未來(lái)的研究應(yīng)當(dāng)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展這個(gè)基于全球價(jià)值鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)的貿(mào)易模型，建立必要的數(shù)據(jù)收集系統(tǒng)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和國(guó)際數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，從主要的全球價(jià)值鏈到所有全球價(jià)值鏈，再到所有類型的全球價(jià)值鏈和不基于全球價(jià)值鏈的貿(mào)易，分析國(guó)家在全球價(jià)值鏈上的位置如何影響他們獲取和分享增加值的能力，分享最近的工業(yè)革命如何快速的改變?nèi)騼r(jià)值鏈的形態(tài)和國(guó)家在其上的位置，以及分析這次工業(yè)革命如何影響國(guó)家間的價(jià)值分配、收入分配、發(fā)展中國(guó)家的升級(jí)，還有分析哪些政策制度對(duì)于無(wú)形資產(chǎn)和產(chǎn)品整體貿(mào)易框架的健康運(yùn)行是必要的，最后還有分析IPR保護(hù)的角色和確?？煽康?、有益的數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)生和分享所需的監(jiān)管。

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　　附錄

　　圖 1A. 中美保險(xiǎn)金融服務(wù)和ICT服務(wù)

　?。ㄎ恼聛?lái)源：牛津大學(xué)技術(shù)與管理發(fā)展研究中心）